Forex IDR to MYR exchange rate Sep, 2020 - Indonesian ...

Ever since i started business, I've noticed this cancerous trend of young and old entrepreneurs who have been promoting the "Marketing Master" "Dr" Azizan Osman, who has been exposed in Malaysia for his fake PhD's (but people are just gonna give him a pass so they can feel good about wasting their money to sit in his VIP seminars).
Local entrepreneurs who have been duped into his cult "mentorship" will mention his name in every newspaper, radio, video interview to promote him. They will sound very confident about how they have "mastered marketing". There are some youtube videos of his giving business and marketing advice with the emotional background music to lure local entrepreneurs into his trap. His ticket prices go up to almost 4000 myr, and its mostly marketing or business advice you can get from a nice cheap book or browsing the internet or those awesome Jack Ma (alibaba.com) videos (free) on youtube.
Why am I so salty? Coz i have a special hate in my heart for MLM's and MLM-ish cults and their deceptive methods of bleeding our people dry, and i hate that his cult slaves are promoting him everywhere. Now I know that mentioning his name here might promote him in a way, but i trust that the majority of the reddit community will not fall into his trap. I wanna know what people think of this cult movement being present in Brunei.
Even in the west, marketing or business coaching is considered a new way of ponzi or scamming people. Here is some logic, if youre successful you will share your knowledge for free. This is similar to the "Master Forex Trader" scam where they charge people to teach them how to be a master, and if things go south its your fault, not the scammer.

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Download PDF of this article here: https://docdro.id/6eLgUPo
In light of the recent fall in oil prices due to the Saudi-Russian dispute and dampening demand for oil due to the lockdowns implemented globally, O&G stocks have taken a severe beating, falling approximately 50% from their highs at the beginning of the year. Not spared from this onslaught is Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (Hibiscus), a listed oil and gas (O&G) exploration and production (E&P) company.
Why invest in O&G stocks in this particularly uncertain period? For one, valuations of these stocks have fallen to multi-year lows, bringing the potential ROI on these stocks to attractive levels. Oil prices are cyclical, and are bound to return to the mean given a sufficiently long time horizon. The trick is to find those companies who can survive through this downturn and emerge into “normal” profitability once oil prices rebound.
In this article, I will explore the upsides and downsides of investing in Hibiscus. I will do my best to cater this report to newcomers to the O&G industry – rather than address exclusively experts and veterans of the O&G sector. As an equity analyst, I aim to provide a view on the company primarily, and will generally refrain from providing macro views on oil or opinions about secular trends of the sector. I hope you enjoy reading it!
Stock code: 5199.KL
Stock name: Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad
Financial information and financial reports: https://www.malaysiastock.biz/Corporate-Infomation.aspx?securityCode=5199
Company website: https://www.hibiscuspetroleum.com/
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Company Snapshot

Hibiscus Petroleum Berhad (5199.KL) is an oil and gas (O&G) upstream exploration and production (E&P) company located in Malaysia. As an E&P company, their business can be basically described as:
· looking for oil,
· drawing it out of the ground, and
· selling it on global oil markets.
This means Hibiscus’s profits are particularly exposed to fluctuating oil prices. With oil prices falling to sub-$30 from about $60 at the beginning of the year, Hibiscus’s stock price has also fallen by about 50% YTD – from around RM 1.00 to RM 0.45 (as of 5 April 2020).
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While the company is domiciled in Malaysia, its two main oil producing fields are located in both Malaysia and the UK. The Malaysian oil field is commonly referred to as the North Sabah field, while the UK oil field is commonly referred to as the Anasuria oil field. Hibiscus has licenses to other oil fields in different parts of the world, notably the Marigold/Sunflower oil fields in the UK and the VIC cluster in Australia, but its revenues and profits mainly stem from the former two oil producing fields.
Given that it’s a small player and has only two primary producing oil fields, it’s not surprising that Hibiscus sells its oil to a concentrated pool of customers, with 2 of them representing 80% of its revenues (i.e. Petronas and BP). Fortunately, both these customers are oil supermajors, and are unlikely to default on their obligations despite low oil prices.
At RM 0.45 per share, the market capitalization is RM 714.7m and it has a trailing PE ratio of about 5x. It doesn’t carry any debt, and it hasn’t paid a dividend in its listing history. The MD, Mr. Kenneth Gerard Pereira, owns about 10% of the company’s outstanding shares.
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Reserves (Total recoverable oil) & Production (bbl/day)

To begin analyzing the company, it’s necessary to understand a little of the industry jargon. We’ll start with Reserves and Production.
In general, there are three types of categories for a company’s recoverable oil volumes – Reserves, Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources. Reserves are those oil fields which are “commercial”, which is defined as below:
^{As defined by the SPE PRMS, Reserves are “… quantities of petroleum anticipated to be commercially recoverable by application of development projects to known accumulations from a given date forward under defined conditions.” Therefore, Reserves must be discovered (by drilling}, recoverable (with current technology), remaining in the subsurface (at the effective date of the evaluation) and “commercial” based on the development project proposed.)
^{Note that Reserves are associated with development projects. To be considered as “commercial”, there must be a firm intention to proceed with the project in a reasonable time frame (typically 5 years}, and such intention must be based upon all of the following criteria:)
^{- A reasonable assessment of the future economics of the development project meeting defined investment and operating criteria; - A reasonable expectation that there will be a market for all or at least the expected sales quantities of production required to justify development; - Evidence that the necessary production and transportation facilities are available or can be made available; and - Evidence that legal, contractual, environmental and other social and economic concerns will allow for the actual implementation of the recovery project being evaluated.}
Contingent Resources and Prospective Resources are further defined as below:
^{- Contingent Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets discovered volumes but is not (yet} commercial (as defined above); and) ^{- Prospective Resources: potentially recoverable volumes associated with a development plan that targets as yet undiscovered volumes.}
In the industry lingo, we generally refer to Reserves as ‘P’ and Contingent Resources as ‘C’. These ‘P’ and ‘C’ resources can be further categorized into 1P/2P/3P resources and 1C/2C/3C resources, each referring to a low/medium/high estimate of the company’s potential recoverable oil volumes:
^{- Low/1C/1P estimate: there should be reasonable certainty that volumes actually recovered will equal or exceed the estimate; - Best/2C/2P estimate: there should be an equal likelihood of the actual volumes of petroleum being larger or smaller than the estimate; and - High/3C/3P estimate: there is a low probability that the estimate will be exceeded.}
Hence in the E&P industry, it is easy to see why most investors and analysts refer to the 2P estimate as the best estimate for a company’s actual recoverable oil volumes. This is because 2P reserves (‘2P’ referring to ‘Proved and Probable’) are a middle estimate of the recoverable oil volumes legally recognized as “commercial”.
However, there’s nothing stopping you from including 2C resources (riskier) or utilizing 1P resources (conservative) as your estimate for total recoverable oil volumes, depending on your risk appetite. In this instance, the company has provided a snapshot of its 2P and 2C resources in its analyst presentation:
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Basically, what the company is saying here is that by 2021, it will have classified as 2P reserves at least 23.7 million bbl from its Anasuria field and 20.5 million bbl from its North Sabah field – for total 2P reserves of 44.2 million bbl (we are ignoring the Australian VIC cluster as it is only estimated to reach first oil by 2022).
Furthermore, the company is stating that they have discovered (but not yet legally classified as “commercial”) a further 71 million bbl of oil from both the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, as well as the Marigold/Sunflower fields. If we include these 2C resources, the total potential recoverable oil volumes could exceed 100 million bbl.
In this report, we shall explore all valuation scenarios giving consideration to both 2P and 2C resources.
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The company further targets a 2021 production rate of 20,000 bbl (LTM: 8,000 bbl), which includes 5,000 bbl from its Anasuria field (LTM: 2,500 bbl) and 7,000 bbl from its North Sabah field (LTM: 5,300 bbl).
This is a substantial increase in forecasted production from both existing and prospective oil fields. If it materializes, annual production rate could be as high as 7,300 mmbbl, and 2021 revenues (given FY20 USD/bbl of $60) could exceed RM 1.5 billion (FY20: RM 988 million).
However, this targeted forecast is quite a stretch from current production levels. Nevertheless, we shall consider all provided information in estimating a valuation for Hibiscus.
To understand Hibiscus’s oil production capacity and forecast its revenues and profits, we need to have a better appreciation of the performance of its two main cash-generating assets – the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field.
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North Sabah oil field
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Hibiscus owns a 50% interest in the North Sabah field together with its partner Petronas, and has production rights over the field up to year 2040. The asset contains 4 oil fields, namely the St Joseph field, South Furious field, SF 30 field and Barton field.
For the sake of brevity, we shall not delve deep into the operational aspects of the fields or the contractual nature of its production sharing contract (PSC). We’ll just focus on the factors which relate to its financial performance. These are:
· Average uptime
· Total oil sold
· Average realized oil price
· Average OPEX per bbl
With regards to average uptime, we can see that the company maintains relative high facility availability, exceeding 90% uptime in all quarters of the LTM with exception of Jul-Sep 2019. The dip in average uptime was due to production enhancement projects and maintenance activities undertaken to improve the production capacity of the St Joseph and SF30 oil fields.
Hence, we can conclude that management has a good handle on operational performance. It also implies that there is little room for further improvement in production resulting from increased uptime.
As North Sabah is under a production sharing contract (PSC), there is a distinction between gross oil production and net oil production. The former relates to total oil drawn out of the ground, whereas the latter refers to Hibiscus’s share of oil production after taxes, royalties and expenses are accounted for. In this case, we want to pay attention to net oil production, not gross.
We can arrive at Hibiscus’s total oil sold for the last twelve months (LTM) by adding up the total oil sold for each of the last 4 quarters. Summing up the figures yields total oil sold for the LTM of approximately 2,075,305 bbl.
Then, we can arrive at an average realized oil price over the LTM by averaging the average realized oil price for the last 4 quarters, giving us an average realized oil price over the LTM of USD 68.57/bbl. We can do the same for average OPEX per bbl, giving us an average OPEX per bbl over the LTM of USD 13.23/bbl.
Thus, we can sum up the above financial performance of the North Sabah field with the following figures:
· Total oil sold: 2,075,305 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 68.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 13.23/bbl
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Anasuria oil field
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Doing the same exercise as above for the Anasuria field, we arrive at the following financial performance for the Anasuria field:
· Total oil sold: 1,073,304 bbl
· Average realized oil price: USD 63.57/bbl
· Average OPEX per bbl: USD 23.22/bbl
As gas production is relatively immaterial, and to be conservative, we shall only consider the crude oil production from the Anasuria field in forecasting revenues.
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Valuation (Method 1)

Putting the figures from both oil fields together, we get the following data:
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Given that we have determined LTM EBITDA of RM 632m, the next step would be to subtract ITDA (interest, tax, depreciation & amortization) from it to obtain estimated LTM Net Profit. Using FY2020’s ITDA of approximately RM 318m as a guideline, we arrive at an estimated LTM Net Profit of RM 314m (FY20: 230m). Given the current market capitalization of RM 714.7m, this implies a trailing LTM PE of 2.3x.
Performing a sensitivity analysis given different oil prices, we arrive at the following net profit table for the company under different oil price scenarios, assuming oil production rate and ITDA remain constant:
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From the above exercise, it becomes apparent that Hibiscus has a breakeven oil price of about USD 41.8863/bbl, and has a lot of operating leverage given the exponential rate of increase in its Net Profit with each consequent increase in oil prices.
Considering that the oil production rate (EBITDA) is likely to increase faster than ITDA’s proportion to revenues (fixed costs), at an implied PE of 4.33x, it seems likely that an investment in Hibiscus will be profitable over the next 10 years (with the assumption that oil prices will revert to the mean in the long-term).
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Valuation (Method 2)

Of course, there are a lot of assumptions behind the above method of valuation. Hence, it would be prudent to perform multiple methods of valuation and compare the figures to one another.
As opposed to the profit/loss assessment in Valuation (Method 1), another way of performing a valuation would be to estimate its balance sheet value, i.e. total revenues from 2P Reserves, and assign a reasonable margin to it.
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From the above, we understand that Hibiscus’s 2P reserves from the North Sabah and Anasuria fields alone are approximately 44.2 mmbbl (we ignore contribution from Australia’s VIC cluster as it hasn’t been developed yet).
Doing a similar sensitivity analysis of different oil prices as above, we arrive at the following estimated total revenues and accumulated net profit:
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Let’s assume that the above average of RM 9.68 billion in total realizable revenues from current 2P reserves holds true. If we assign a conservative Net Profit margin of 15% (FY20: 23%; past 5 years average: 16%), we arrive at estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion. Given the current market capitalization of RM 714 million, we might be able to say that the equity is worth about twice the current share price.
However, it is understandable that some readers might feel that the figures used in the above estimate (e.g. net profit margin of 15%) were randomly plucked from the sky. So how do we reconcile them with figures from the financial statements? Fortunately, there appears to be a way to do just that.
Intangible Assets
I refer you to a figure in the financial statements which provides a shortcut to the valuation of 2P Reserves. This is the carrying value of Intangible Assets on the Balance Sheet.
As of 2QFY21, that amount was RM 1,468,860,000 (i.e. RM 1.468 billion).
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Quite coincidentally, one might observe that this figure is dangerously close to the estimated accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves of RM 1.452 billion we calculated earlier. But why would this amount matter at all?
To answer that, I refer you to the notes of the Annual Report FY20 (AR20). On page 148 of the AR20, we find the following two paragraphs:
^{E&E assets comprise of rights and concession and conventional studies. Following the acquisition of a concession right to explore a licensed area, the costs incurred such as geological and geophysical surveys, drilling, commercial appraisal costs and other directly attributable costs of exploration and appraisal including technical and administrative costs, are capitalised as conventional studies, presented as intangible assets.
E&E assets are assessed for impairment when facts and circumstances suggest that the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount. The Group will allocate E&E assets to cash generating unit (“CGU”}s or groups of CGUs for the purpose of assessing such assets for impairment. Each CGU or group of units to which an E&E asset is allocated will not be larger than an operating segment as disclosed in Note 39 to the financial statements.)
Hence, we can determine that firstly, the intangible asset value represents capitalized costs of acquisition of the oil fields, including technical exploration costs and costs of acquiring the relevant licenses. Secondly, an impairment review will be carried out when “the carrying amount of an E&E asset may exceed its recoverable amount”, with E&E assets being allocated to “cash generating units” (CGU) for the purposes of assessment.
On page 169 of the AR20, we find the following:
^{Carrying amounts of the Group’s intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO are reviewed for possible impairment annually including any indicators of impairment. For the purpose of assessing impairment, assets are grouped at the lowest level CGUs for which there is a separately identifiable cash flow available. These CGUs are based on operating areas, represented by the 2011 North Sabah EOR PSC (“North Sabah”}, the Anasuria Cluster, the Marigold and Sunflower fields, the VIC/P57 exploration permit (“VIC/P57”) and the VIC/L31 production license (“VIC/L31”).)
So apparently, the CGUs that have been assigned refer to the respective oil producing fields, two of which include the North Sabah field and the Anasuria field. In order to perform the impairment review, estimates of future cash flow will be made by management to assess the “recoverable amount” (as described above), subject to assumptions and an appropriate discount rate.
Hence, what we can gather up to now is that management will estimate future recoverable cash flows from a CGU (i.e. the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields), compare that to their carrying value, and perform an impairment if their future recoverable cash flows are less than their carrying value. In other words, if estimated accumulated profits from the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are less than their carrying value, an impairment is required.
So where do we find the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields? Further down on page 184 in the AR20, we see the following:
^{Included in rights and concession are the carrying amounts of producing field licenses in the Anasuria Cluster amounting to RM668,211,518 (2018: RM687,664,530}, producing field licenses in North Sabah amounting to RM471,031,008 (2018: RM414,333,116))
Hence, we can determine that the carrying values for the North Sabah and Anasuria oil fields are RM 471m and RM 668m respectively. But where do we find the future recoverable cash flows of the fields as estimated by management, and what are the assumptions used in that calculation?
Fortunately, we find just that on page 185:
^{17 INTANGIBLE ASSETS (CONTINUED})
^(a Anasuria Cluster)
^{The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for Anasuria Cluster during the current financial year. In the previous financial year, due to uncertainties in crude oil prices, the Group has assessed the recoverable amount of the intangible assets, oil and gas assets and FPSO relating to the Anasuria Cluster. The recoverable amount is determined using the FVLCTS model based on discounted cash flows (“DCF”} derived from the expected cash in/outflow pattern over the production lives.)
^{The key assumptions used to determine the recoverable amount for the Anasuria Cluster were as follows:
(i} Discount rate of 10%;)
⁽ⁱⁱ Future cost inflation factor of 2% per annum;)
⁽ⁱⁱⁱ Oil price forecast based on the oil price forward curve from independent parties; and,)
^(iv Oil production profile based on the assessment by independent oil and gas reserve experts.)
^{Based on the assessments performed, the Directors concluded that the recoverable amount calculated based on the valuation model is higher than the carrying amount.
(b} North Sabah)
^{The acquisition of the North Sabah assets was completed in the previous financial year. Details of the acquisition are as disclosed in Note 15 to the financial statements.
The Directors have concluded that there is no impairment indicator for North Sabah during the current financial year.}
Here, we can see that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field was estimated based on a DCF of expected future cash flows over the production life of the asset. The key assumptions used by management all seem appropriate, including a discount rate of 10% and oil price and oil production estimates based on independent assessment. From there, management concludes that the recoverable amount of the Anasuria field is higher than its carrying amount (i.e. no impairment required). Likewise, for the North Sabah field.
How do we interpret this? Basically, what management is saying is that given a 10% discount rate and independent oil price and oil production estimates, the accumulated profits (i.e. recoverable amount) from both the North Sabah and the Anasuria fields exceed their carrying amounts of RM 471m and RM 668m respectively.
In other words, according to management’s own estimates, the carrying value of the Intangible Assets of RM 1.468 billion approximates the accumulated Net Profit recoverable from 2P reserves.
To conclude Valuation (Method 2), we arrive at the following:
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	Our estimates	Management estimates
Accumulated Net Profit from 2P Reserves	RM 1.452 billion	RM 1.468 billion

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Financials

By now, we have established the basic economics of Hibiscus’s business, including its revenues (i.e. oil production and oil price scenarios), costs (OPEX, ITDA), profitability (breakeven, future earnings potential) and balance sheet value (2P reserves, valuation). Moving on, we want to gain a deeper understanding of the 3 statements to anticipate any blind spots and risks. We’ll refer to the financial statements of both the FY20 annual report and the 2Q21 quarterly report in this analysis.
For the sake of brevity, I’ll only point out those line items which need extra attention, and skip over the rest. Feel free to go through the financial statements on your own to gain a better familiarity of the business.
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Income Statement
First, we’ll start with the Income Statement on page 135 of the AR20. Revenues are straightforward, as we’ve discussed above. Cost of Sales and Administrative Expenses fall under the jurisdiction of OPEX, which we’ve also seen earlier. Other Expenses are mostly made up of Depreciation & Amortization of RM 115m.
Finance Costs are where things start to get tricky. Why does a company which carries no debt have such huge amounts of finance costs? The reason can be found in Note 8, where it is revealed that the bulk of finance costs relate to the unwinding of discount of provision for decommissioning costs of RM 25m (Note 32).
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This actually refers to the expected future costs of restoring the Anasuria and North Sabah fields to their original condition once the oil reserves have been depleted. Accounting standards require the company to provide for these decommissioning costs as they are estimable and probable. The way the decommissioning costs are accounted for is the same as an amortized loan, where the initial carrying value is recognized as a liability and the discount rate applied is reversed each year as an expense on the Income Statement. However, these expenses are largely non-cash in nature and do not necessitate a cash outflow every year (FY20: RM 69m).
Unwinding of discount on non-current other payables of RM 12m relate to contractual payments to the North Sabah sellers. We will discuss it later.
Taxation is another tricky subject, and is even more significant than Finance Costs at RM 161m. In gist, Hibiscus is subject to the 38% PITA (Petroleum Income Tax Act) under Malaysian jurisdiction, and the 30% Petroleum tax + 10% Supplementary tax under UK jurisdiction. Of the RM 161m, RM 41m of it relates to deferred tax which originates from the difference between tax treatment and accounting treatment on capitalized assets (accelerated depreciation vs straight-line depreciation). Nonetheless, what you should take away from this is that the tax expense is a tangible expense and material to breakeven analysis.
Fortunately, tax is a variable expense, and should not materially impact the cash flow of Hibiscus in today’s low oil price environment.
Note: Cash outflows for Tax Paid in FY20 was RM 97m, substantially below the RM 161m tax expense.
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Balance Sheet
The balance sheet of Hibiscus is unexciting; I’ll just bring your attention to those line items which need additional scrutiny. I’ll use the figures in the latest 2Q21 quarterly report (2Q21) and refer to the notes in AR20 for clarity.
We’ve already discussed Intangible Assets in the section above, so I won’t dwell on it again.
Moving on, the company has Equipment of RM 582m, largely relating to O&G assets (e.g. the Anasuria FPSO vessel and CAPEX incurred on production enhancement projects). Restricted cash and bank balances represent contractual obligations for decommissioning costs of the Anasuria Cluster, and are inaccessible for use in operations.
Inventories are relatively low, despite Hibiscus being an E&P company, so forex fluctuations on carrying value of inventories are relatively immaterial. Trade receivables largely relate to entitlements from Petronas and BP (both oil supermajors), and are hence quite safe from impairment. Other receivables, deposits and prepayments are significant as they relate to security deposits placed with sellers of the oil fields acquired; these should be ignored for cash flow purposes.
^{Note: Total cash and bank balances do not include approximately RM 105 m proceeds from the North Sabah December 2019 offtake (which was received in January 2020})
Cash and bank balances of RM 90m do not include RM 105m of proceeds from offtake received in 3Q21 (Jan 2020). Hence, the actual cash and bank balances as of 2Q21 approximate RM 200m.
Liabilities are a little more interesting. First, I’ll draw your attention to the significant Deferred tax liabilities of RM 457m. These largely relate to the amortization of CAPEX (i.e. Equipment and capitalized E&E expenses), which is given an accelerated depreciation treatment for tax purposes.
The way this works is that the government gives Hibiscus a favorable tax treatment on capital expenditures incurred via an accelerated depreciation schedule, so that the taxable income is less than usual. However, this leads to the taxable depreciation being utilized quicker than accounting depreciation, hence the tax payable merely deferred to a later period – when the tax depreciation runs out but accounting depreciation remains. Given the capital intensive nature of the business, it is understandable why Deferred tax liabilities are so large.
We’ve discussed Provision for decommissioning costs under the Finance Costs section earlier. They are also quite significant at RM 266m.
Notably, the Other Payables and Accruals are a hefty RM 431m. What do they relate to? Basically, they are contractual obligations to the sellers of the oil fields which are only payable upon oil prices reaching certain thresholds. Hence, while they are current in nature, they will only become payable when oil prices recover to previous highs, and are hence not an immediate cash outflow concern given today’s low oil prices.
Cash Flow Statement
There is nothing in the cash flow statement which warrants concern.
Notably, the company generated OCF of approximately RM 500m in FY20 and RM 116m in 2Q21. It further incurred RM 330m and RM 234m of CAPEX in FY20 and 2Q21 respectively, largely owing to production enhancement projects to increase the production rate of the Anasuria and North Sabah fields, which according to management estimates are accretive to ROI.
Tax paid was RM 97m in FY20 and RM 61m in 2Q21 (tax expense: RM 161m and RM 62m respectively).
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Risks

There are a few obvious and not-so-obvious risks that one should be aware of before investing in Hibiscus. We shall not consider operational risks (e.g. uptime, OPEX) as they are outside the jurisdiction of the equity analyst. Instead, we shall focus on the financial and strategic risks largely outside the control of management. The main ones are:
· Oil prices remaining subdued for long periods of time
· Fluctuation of exchange rates
· Customer concentration risk
· 2P Reserves being less than estimated
· Significant current and non-current liabilities
· Potential issuance of equity
Oil prices remaining subdued
Of topmost concern in the minds of most analysts is whether Hibiscus has the wherewithal to sustain itself through this period of low oil prices (sub-$30). A quick and dirty estimate of annual cash outflow (i.e. burn rate) assuming a $20 oil world and historical production rates is between RM 50m-70m per year, which considering the RM 200m cash balance implies about 3-4 years of sustainability before the company runs out of cash and has to rely on external assistance for financing.
Table 1: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and exchange rates
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The above table shows different EBITDA scenarios (RM ‘m) given different oil prices (left column) and USD:MYR exchange rates (top row). Currently, oil prices are $27 and USD:MYR is 1:4.36.
Given conservative assumptions of average OPEX/bbl of $20 (current: $15), we can safely say that the company will be loss-making as long as oil remains at $20 or below (red). However, we can see that once oil prices hit $25, the company can tank the lower-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 50m (orange), while at RM $27 it can sufficiently muddle through the higher-end estimate of the annual burn rate of RM 70m (green).
Hence, we can assume that as long as the average oil price over the next 3-4 years remains above $25, Hibiscus should come out of this fine without the need for any external financing.
Customer Concentration Risk
With regards to customer concentration risk, there is not much the analyst or investor can do except to accept the risk. Fortunately, 80% of revenues can be attributed to two oil supermajors (Petronas and BP), hence the risk of default on contractual obligations and trade receivables seems to be quite diminished.
2P Reserves being less than estimated
2P Reserves being less than estimated is another risk that one should keep in mind. Fortunately, the current market cap is merely RM 714m – at half of estimated recoverable amounts of RM 1.468 billion – so there’s a decent margin of safety. In addition, there are other mitigating factors which shall be discussed in the next section (‘Opportunities’).
Significant non-current and current liabilities
The significant non-current and current liabilities have been addressed in the previous section. It has been determined that they pose no threat to immediate cash flow due to them being long-term in nature (e.g. decommissioning costs, deferred tax, etc). Hence, for the purpose of assessing going concern, their amounts should not be a cause for concern.
Potential issuance of equity
Finally, we come to the possibility of external financing being required in this low oil price environment. While the company should last 3-4 years on existing cash reserves, there is always the risk of other black swan events materializing (e.g. coronavirus) or simply oil prices remaining muted for longer than 4 years.
Furthermore, management has hinted that they wish to acquire new oil assets at presently depressed prices to increase daily production rate to a targeted 20,000 bbl by end-2021. They have room to acquire debt, but they may also wish to issue equity for this purpose. Hence, the possibility of dilution to existing shareholders cannot be entirely ruled out.
However, given management’s historical track record of prioritizing ROI and optimal capital allocation, and in consideration of the fact that the MD owns 10% of outstanding shares, there is some assurance that any potential acquisitions will be accretive to EPS and therefore valuations.
​

Opportunities

As with the existence of risk, the presence of material opportunities also looms over the company. Some of them are discussed below:
· Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
· Inclusion of 2C Resources
· Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Increased Daily Oil Production Rate
The first and most obvious opportunity is the potential for increased production rate. We’ve seen in the last quarter (2Q21) that the North Sabah field increased its daily production rate by approximately 20% as a result of production enhancement projects (infill drilling), lowering OPEX/bbl as a result. To vastly oversimplify, infill drilling is the process of maximizing well density by drilling in the spaces between existing wells to improve oil production.
The same improvements are being undertaken at the Anasuria field via infill drilling, subsea debottlenecking, water injection and sidetracking of existing wells. Without boring you with industry jargon, this basically means future production rate is likely to improve going forward.
By how much can the oil production rate be improved by? Management estimates in their analyst presentation that enhancements in the Anasuria field will be able to yield 5,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 2,500 bbl/day).
Similarly, improvements in the North Sabah field is expected to yield 7,000 bbl/day by 2021 (current: 5,300 bbl/day).
This implies a total 2021 expected daily production rate from the two fields alone of 12,000 bbl/day (current: 8,000 bbl/day). That’s a 50% increase in yields which we haven’t factored into our valuation yet.
Furthermore, we haven’t considered any production from existing 2C resources (e.g. Marigold/Sunflower) or any potential acquisitions which may occur in the future. By management estimates, this can potentially increase production by another 8,000 bbl/day, bringing total production to 20,000 bbl/day.
While this seems like a stretch of the imagination, it pays to keep them in mind when forecasting future revenues and valuations.
Just to play around with the numbers, I’ve come up with a sensitivity analysis of possible annual EBITDA at different oil prices and daily oil production rates:
Table 2: Hibiscus EBITDA at different oil price and daily oil production rates
https://preview.redd.it/jnpfhr5n9br41.png?width=814&format=png&auto=webp&s=bbe4b512bc17f576d87529651140cc74cde3d159
The left column represents different oil prices while the top row represents different daily oil production rates.
The green column represents EBITDA at current daily production rate of 8,000 bbl/day; the orange column represents EBITDA at targeted daily production rate of 12,000 bbl/day; while the purple column represents EBITDA at maximum daily production rate of 20,000 bbl/day.
Even conservatively assuming increased estimated annual ITDA of RM 500m (FY20: RM 318m), and long-term average oil prices of $50 (FY20: $60), the estimated Net Profit and P/E ratio is potentially lucrative at daily oil production rates of 12,000 bbl/day and above.
2C Resources
Since we’re on the topic of improved daily oil production rate, it bears to pay in mind the relatively enormous potential from Hibiscus’s 2C Resources. North Sabah’s 2C Resources alone exceed 30 mmbbl; while those from the yet undiagnosed Marigold/Sunflower fields also reach 30 mmbbl. Altogether, 2C Resources exceed 70 mmbbl, which dwarfs the 44 mmbbl of 2P Reserves we have considered up to this point in our valuation estimates.
To refresh your memory, 2C Resources represents oil volumes which have been discovered but are not yet classified as “commercial”. This means that there is reasonable certainty of the oil being recoverable, as opposed to simply being in the very early stages of exploration. So, to be conservative, we will imagine that only 50% of 2C Resources are eligible for reclassification to 2P reserves, i.e. 35 mmbbl of oil.
https://preview.redd.it/mto11iz7abr41.png?width=375&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9028ab0816b3d3e25067447f2c70acd3ebfc41a
This additional 35 mmbbl of oil represents an 80% increase to existing 2P reserves. Assuming the daily oil production rate increases similarly by 80%, we will arrive at 14,400 bbl/day of oil production. According to Table 2 above, this would yield an EBITDA of roughly RM 630m assuming $50 oil.
Comparing that estimated EBITDA to FY20’s actual EBITDA:

	FY20	FY21 (incl. 2C)	Difference
Daily oil production (bbl/day)	8,626	14,400	+66%
Average oil price (USD/bbl)	$68.57	$50	-27%
Average OPEX/bbl (USD)	$16.64	$20	+20%
EBITDA (RM ‘m)	632	630	-

Hence, even conservatively assuming lower oil prices and higher OPEX/bbl (which should decrease in the presence of higher oil volumes) than last year, we get approximately the same EBITDA as FY20.
For the sake of completeness, let’s assume that Hibiscus issues twice the no. of existing shares over the next 10 years, effectively diluting shareholders by 50%. Even without accounting for the possibility of the acquisition of new oil fields, at the current market capitalization of RM 714m, the prospective P/E would be about 10x. Not too shabby.
Future oil prices exceeding $50 and effects from coronavirus dissipating
Hibiscus shares have recently been hit by a one-two punch from oil prices cratering from $60 to $30, as a result of both the Saudi-Russian dispute and depressed demand for oil due to coronavirus. This has massively increased supply and at the same time hugely depressed demand for oil (due to the globally coordinated lockdowns being implemented).
Given a long enough timeframe, I fully expect OPEC+ to come to an agreement and the economic effects from the coronavirus to dissipate, allowing oil prices to rebound. As we equity investors are aware, oil prices are cyclical and are bound to recover over the next 10 years.
When it does, valuations of O&G stocks (including Hibiscus’s) are likely to improve as investors overshoot expectations and begin to forecast higher oil prices into perpetuity, as they always tend to do in good times. When that time arrives, Hibiscus’s valuations are likely to become overoptimistic as all O&G stocks tend to do during oil upcycles, resulting in valuations far exceeding reasonable estimates of future earnings. If you can hold the shares up until then, it’s likely you will make much more on your investment than what we’ve been estimating.

Conclusion

Wrapping up what we’ve discussed so far, we can conclude that Hibiscus’s market capitalization of RM 714m far undershoots reasonable estimates of fair value even under conservative assumptions of recoverable oil volumes and long-term average oil prices. As a value investor, I hesitate to assign a target share price, but it’s safe to say that this stock is worth at least RM 1.00 (current: RM 0.45). Risk is relatively contained and the upside far exceeds the downside. While I have no opinion on the short-term trajectory of oil prices, I can safely recommend this stock as a long-term Buy based on fundamental research.

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Open disclosure, i am not promoting these shops or am affiliated with them. Im just sharing based on my knowledge after buying the battle pass for me and my girlfriend as we play together.
As the battlepass is only 428 SC, and the minimum SC to buy ingame is 565 SC, you end up spendig 11-11.5USD (15 singapore dollars!) and wasting 25% of those freaking SC, because you cant buy jack shit with the leftover 100ish SCs unless you topup further. (Netease and its incompetent business models...)
Ive found two main methods to mitigate this.
The first is to buy from Gamers Mall SEA seagm.com . You can buy a smaller increment of SC, the perfect number is 435 for 10.5 sgd. This is actually 9.82 sgd plus 0.81 sgd transaction fee for using paypal. You only waste 7 SC to buy the 428 battlepass. You also get to finally claim the free cap america, marvel, and scarlet witch along with the recharge incentives.
Savings: This works out to 18 cents USD per SC. The ingame cost,fyi, is 19.6 cents USD so a decent 8-9% discount. (Sg guys forgive my USD conversions but hoping to let our bros from rest of sea understand easier)
However to me this is absolutely worth it because

1. You dont have leftover unusable SC
2. The 8% discount will increase if you buy more amounts, im sure if you buy 20 odd dollars worth, you probably save closer to 12%-15%

For Singapore gamers i have another potential but not tested hack, using malaysian ringgit. Fyi, singapore, indonesia and thailand gamers get a extra surcharge compared to other sea gamers. For 565 credits, we pay 11-11.50 usd equivalent (15sgd/349 thb/150k rupiah).
Our friends from Malaysian, Philippines pay 9.8 usd (40my499php) so more than 10% less!
The hack is using codashop.com, and simply choosing to pay in malaysian ringgit visa. At the myr price, we pay only 40 ringgit or 13ish sgd instead of 15. The 1odd dollar sounds small but again is a 10% difference that you can use to... buy a cup of kopi? Lol. The rate is close enough at 17ish USD cents per SC, though i admit that forex conversions charges using credit card will probably bump it to 18 cents per SC in the end. Still cheaper than ingame.
Of the two methods, i find the first one with GMSEA is better anyway as you dont need to try to play forex conversions, and you only need enough for the battlepass. Nonetheless both are still cheaper than ingame purchases in both absolute amount ( buying the minimum needed for battlepass) or proportionally (more SC for less spend).
Hope this was helpful!

Hi., from Philippines here. Aside from my 800MYR pocket money in my Malaysia trip, I plan to withdraw thru ATMs if I have ever got short of cash (accommodations and attractions already paid online).. Recently, CIMB opened their services in the Philippines and I got an CIMB ATM card. I also have an upcoming card from Maybank.
Which of these two Malaysian banks is the best to use in Malaysia, in terms of number of branches, overseas withdrawal fees, forex conversion fees.. Thank you

Hi everyone, I've been using a demo account to learn how to trade in forex. So far, I've been losing almost $20 - $500 a day. Yes ladies and gentlemen, I'm literally flushing my virtual cash down the toilet. But the best bet I've been doing is on Gold/USD, which actually balances my profit by the end of the day.
I'd like to learn more on Forex. Anyone would like to share their experience and how y'all learn about forex.
Im thinking of starting to trade with a real account in a couple of months. Hope to learn more about it. Thank you.

Malaysian ringgit is the official currency of Malaysia. Earlier the currency was denoted in Dollars. Do you need to convert MYR to INR? Then you can do it in various ways. The purpose could be emergency remittance, trip to Malaysia or paying educational fees.
The exchange process through banks and moneychangers is a bit traditional. Banks don't offer you Malaysia currency at a flexible rate. You'll get it according to day option, unlike forex sites.
Also, moneychangers charge extra on MYR to INR so it can indeed cost you more. Online forex sites offer great deals on the exchange of RM to INR.
Online Forex site
Online forex site like Bookmyforex.com offers you the best rates on exchange. MYR to INR on BookMyForex can help to save your money and effort both. As the rates are updated after every three seconds, you'll get to freeze the rates for three days.
By paying an upfront charge of 2%, you'll be able to use the same rate for your transaction. The site also offers a unique rate alert feature which notifies you when your desired rate matches the rate on the site. Getting a fair rate will help you get the best deal on ringgit to INR.
The rate advantage
Bookmyforex.com is the most popular online marketplace for currency exchange. The site lets you compare the rates and also use a converter. The site has partnered with more than 100 banks and moneychangers to give you a fair rate advantage.
It offers a home delivery option in more than 650+ locations in India. Ringgit to INR exchange is easy when you enter a location and amount. You need to set your rate for exchange and make payment.
It also offers a facility of same-day delivery in emergencies. If you book your order before 12 in the noon, you'll get same-day delivery on exchange.
MYR Forex cards
Applications in smartphones have surely changed the way you work. Everything can be done in seconds with the use of apps. In the same way, you can opt for a smart currency option if you are traveling to Malaysia.
Buy an MYR Forex card from Bookmyforex.com and have a great time on your trip. You can preload Malaysia currency in the card and use it to make purchases including the ones on online websites.
The site also offers traveler's cheque and MYR money transfer. Traveler's cheque can be encashed in an emergency and money transfer takes about twenty-four hours.
Get the best deal,
Who doesn't wish to get the best deal on the exchange? Exchanging ringgit to INR is easy with Bookmyforex.com. There is no hidden charge or fee that you have to pay on exchange.
The process is simple, you just need to log on to the site. Choose MYR to INR exchange option. Enter the amount and rate and get your payment done. The order will be delivered at your home.
The exchange process has never been this simple. With Bookmyforex.com you can expect complete transparency and expediency. You'll also get the benefit of loyalty programs and customer service from the site. MYR to INR on BookMyForex is the best way to exchange.

Hi guys, i'll be travelling to Malaysia with some regularity and wanted to know the most favorable forex places in KL.
I'd be looking to exchange USD for MYR and have had mixed luck in the past with my experiences. The best I had seen was in Seremban, where i got 4.01 MYR per USD. I haven't seen anywhere in KL with such a favorable rate, but thought to ask if people knew of where i could get a fair exchange. the current market rate is 4.19.
Any pointers for where i can exchange in KL with the lowest fees and commissions would be super appreciated.
​
Thanks sayangs!

When it comes to forex trading a forex trader can reach a higher financial limit. In fact, there are many limits to cross in forex trading. But, to reach miles of financial high goal in forex trading you will need guidance to tell you what to do and what not to do.
You know basic currency pairs for trading, you know what affects the forex market and how can you use your ringgit in exchange of US dollar (If you are planning on USD/MYR currency trading).
Multi Management Future Solutions has done work for you. We have collected all the important lessons for forex trading right here-
https://www.mmfsolutions.my/blog/top-10-forex-tips-trade-like-pro/

When it comes to forex trading a forex trader can reach a higher financial limit. In fact, there are many limits to cross in forex trading. But, to reach miles of financial high goal in forex trading you will need guidance to tell you what to do and what not to do.
You know basic currency pairs for trading, you know what affects the forex market and how can you use your ringgit in exchange of US dollar (If you are planning on USD/MYR currency trading).
Multi Management Future Solutions has done work for you. We have collected all the important lessons for forex trading right here- https://www.mmfsolutions.my/blog/top-10-forex-tips-trade-like-pro/

When it comes to forex trading a forex trader can reach a higher financial limit. In fact, there are many limits to cross in forex trading. But, to reach miles of financial high goal in forex trading you will need guidance to tell you what to do and what not to do.
You know basic currency pairs for trading, you know what affects the forex market and how can you use your ringgit in exchange of US dollar (If you are planning on USD/MYR currency trading).
Multi Management Future Solutions has done work for you. We have collected all the important lessons for forex trading right here- https://www.mmfsolutions.my/blog/top-10-forex-tips-trade-like-pro/

PipsTycoon is a real money economic and financial simulator buld around the ideea of social trading.You can transform your virtual dollars into real ones anytime you want. You can start a virtual company like a forex broker, get into politics or trade thousands of real world assets like currencies, commodities, cryptocoins or shares. You can also request a physical delivery of gold. It is new site, so there can be bugs, but they are fixing it. With working you can make around $0.1 to $0.15 on start if you do not invest your money, just one click per day. Later you will earn more.
 
Withdraw:
Web Wallets - Payza, Neteller, EgoPay, OkPay ... min 5€  
Local Bank Transfer - HUF, RON, MYR, GBP, RON ... min 10€  
EU Transfer (EURO) - European countries only min 10€  
International Transfer - International WIRE Transfer min 50€ (10€ fee)  
Western Union - The fastest way to be paid min 20€ (1% - 10% fee)
 
If you sign under me I will help you with game.  
Ref link: http://www.pipstycoon.com/?i=977  
non ref link: http://pipstycoon.com/index.php

Full data available here.
Prices listed are for the Android version. iOS prices will be similar but may not be entirely the same since Apple uses a different pricing matrix.
Countries in bold see a price increase; countries not in bold see a price decrease.

Country	Currency	OLD 50 Gems	OLD 86 Gems	OLD Per Gem	NEW 50 Gems	New 86 Gems	New Per Gem	Change
Croatia	HRK	289	479	5.569767	275	459	5.337209	-4.18%
Egypt	EGP	319.99	529.99	6.162674	549.99	949.99	10.9998	+78.49%
Kazakhstan	KZT	11990	19990	232.4419	9990	16990	197.5581	-15.01%
Latvia	EUR	36.99	59.99	0.697558	29.99	49.99	0.581279	-16.67%
Malaysia	MYR	144.99	244.99	2.848721	129.9	199.9	2.324419	-18.40%
Nigeria	NGN	4812.92	8021.53	93.2736	9500	15900	184.8837	+98.22%
Pakistan	PKR	2894	4819	56.03488	3000	5000	58.13953	+3.76%
Philippines	PHP	1700	2850	33.13953	1490	2490	28.95349	-12.63%
Qatar	QAR	130	215	2.5	109.99	184.99	2.149811	-14.01%
Vietnam	VND	795000	1350000	15697.67	699000	1099000	12779.07	-18.59%

Now before anyone starts crying bloody murder over Nigeria and Egypt, let me try to explain the drastic price increases.
Strong downward macroeconomic pressure on Nigeria's currency, the Naira, meant that the Nigerian Central Bank was unable to protect its currency's pegged value to the Dollar. On June 20 this year, the Central Bank abandoned the pegged value, allowing the Naira to float and plummet ~40%.
Similarly, the Egyptian government devalued the Egyptian Pound on November 3, abandoning its previous peg of 8.8 XUSD.
Hence the new prices are in line with forex trends, albeit late. Remember the Ukrainian loophole? Arbitrage opportunities often arise when merchants fail to adjust overseas prices accordingly in a timely fashion. Maybe KLab hired a new intern to read the newspapers?
All the other price changes listed here are also in line with current forex trends. Of course KLab never seems to want to lower the prices in countries where love gems are overpriced, e.g. Australia.

Hi, i'm searching for guides for ethereum mining/trading. i'm not a rich guy, just a simple working class trying to make a better life for my family. i 'm already 28
A little background. i work a 9-6 jobs as a customer service in Malaysia and get paid in MYR(Malaysian RInggit) FYI : 1 MYR = 0.232 USD so my monthly income is MYR 2300(you guys can do the math) i recently got married and i rent a house with my wife(no kids yet) after rent money and all the utiities, my balance would be around MYR700+
so im really interested in making money and give a better life for my wife and future kids. i need help for guidance in starting in cryptocurrency.
my questions : where should i start? how can i buy ethereum? or is it better to mine? how trading, is it the same as forex? i really dont know anything
PLEASE DO HELP. thank you kind redditors

¿QUÉ ES UNA CUENTA BANCARIA OFFSHORE? Si inviertes en los mercados financieros internacionales, o bien si deseas mover dinero en el extranjero de forma segura y eficiente, deberías evaluar tener una cuenta offshore. Gracias a https://www.sinimpuestos.com es posible crear cuentas bancarias anónimas y numeradas en países reconocidos sin necesidad de pagar impuestos. Ofrecen cuentas bancarias numeradas, anónimas y sin impuestos en hasta 13 divisas diferentes, en los bancos de mayor reputación mundial y para personas o empresas en los siguientes países: España, Austria, Bélgica, Finlandia, Francia, Alemania, Irlanda, Italia, Holanda, Portugal, Eslovaquia, Suiza, Reino Unido, Australia, Hong Kong, Malasia, Nueva Zelanda, Sudáfrica, y Suecia. En las diferentes divisas: EUR, AUD, GBP, CHF, CAD, HKD, JPY, MYR, NZD, ZAR, SEK Y THB. Haciendo un total de hasta 36 cuentas bancarias diferentes, que se puede tener a un módico precio. ¿Es posible tener una anónima numerada en estos países sin necesidad de pagar impuestos? Gracias a https://www.sinimpuestos.com y a sus contactos, es posible tener esta grandísima oportunidad que no todo el mundo conoce. Las cuentas pueden recibir y enviar capitales ILIMITADOS pero hay que tener en cuenta que las transferencias recibidas superiores a 50.000 dólares americanos o su equivalente en otra divisa, deben ser justificadas, como control preventivo al narcotráfico o financiación al terrorismo. Usted puede recibir varias transferencias de 45.000 dólares sin justificar, solo justificará las superiores a 50.000 dólares. El justificante puede ser un contrato, una factura, incluso una explicación detallada de la venta. También, en estas cuentas puede usted o sus clientes depositar dinero en efectivo, directamente en las ventanillas bancarias. En estas cuentas puede solicitar una tarjeta de débito anónima para retirar el capital desde cualquier cajero del mundo, también podrá enviar el dinero a otras cuentas suyas en otros países. El dinero depositado en estas cuentas no tiene que ser declarado, aunque si lo desea también puede hacerlo. La documentación necesaria es escaneado de DNI o Pasaporte y una prueba de residencia, en el plazo de 24 horas tendrá su cuenta numerada anónima y libre de impuestos disponible. A su vez, también puede invertir en Bolsa, Forex, CFDs, Metales, Acciones, renta fija y fondos de inversión desde su cuenta bancaria, y sin necesidad de pagar impuestos por los rendimientos obtenidos. También en algunas cuentas puede adquirir Oro Bancarizado. En fin es un mundo de oportunidades el que le ofrece https://www.sinimpuestos.com al alcance de su mano.

PipsTycoon is new game started by the creator of GoldenTycoon. In these types of games you can buy companies and sell products that other companies need to make products. It’s a business simulator of which the emphasis of this one lies on stocks, forex, trading,... It has only started in the beginning of July and getting in at the beginning is crucial for this kind of game. You can earn for free by ''working’’ everyday, accumulating money and then buying your first company. Or, you can invest your own money and buy a company at an earlier stage giving you a lot of advantages. I would suggest to simply see this site as a game you buy on Steam and simply have fun, if you make some beermoney it’s great but not a guarantee.
Original post with more info
Withdraw:
Web Wallets - Payza, Neteller, EgoPay, OkPay ... min 5€
Local Bank Transfer - HUF, RON, MYR, GBP, RON ... min 10€
EU Transfer (EURO) - European countries only min 10€
International Transfer - International WIRE Transfer min 50€ (10€ fee)
Western Union - The fastest way to be paid min 20€ (1% - 10% fee)
Payment prove: none yet